I'll wait for some votes before I post my personal opinion, however.
Current Scores
Ahlissa: 4
North Kingdom: 1
I had to edit my post because I was in a time warp... thanks Delgath for setting me straight. I was thinking Cuckoo!
I still vote for Ahlissa.
( disclaimer follows: this is all conjecture and non official just the ramblings of a bunch of greyhawk nutbars so take it as such.
)Ahlissa needing the finacial boost and to secure the extents of its windmarch project may begin pressuring the cities of the Solonor compact for their joining of the mighty United kingdom of Ahlissa.In so doing troops would be deployed to secure the border and perhaps influance Rel astra to give it a hard think over before saying no.
Meanwhile to the North, Grenell makes several deals with major humanoid tribes in the former bone march, with the intention to keep the norther border secure with Ratik and to ensure no incursions from same. meanwhile covertly moving large amounts of war materials and troops south towards staging points along the border with Ahlissa and enlisting the aid of most of the nation's Hextorian clergy in the coming glorious war, that will once and for all unite the great kingdom and set it firmly in the guantleted fist of Hextor....
( que gathering dark clouds and the roll of thunder )
The North kingdom will likely strike first, and at a time most inconvinent for Ahlissa, they would strike deep into its heartland and cause as much damage to the infrastructure as possible, since this is a war not for quick gains but one for a empire, and the Hextorians know that it will likely be a long and bloody affair ( or at least so the hope)
After initial losses and many set backs Ahlissa would rally any support it could find, even re-establishing the order of the knight protectors of the great kingdom, and call all of these would be heros to their aid in this dark hour.
Many epic battles would be fought and great seiges waged until neighbor nations would find themselves draged into this war, but in the end, through adversity and hardship I feel Ahlissa would eventually triumph, either through the intervention of other nations ( that would not want to see a Hextorian ran empire with all of the resources of the Great kingdom ) or by their own intestinal fortitude and the strength of the Knight protectors.
And a new Great kingdom would be founded
( que cheering of crowds and waving of banners )
at least thats our rose colored take on it.
that was fun
and of course the outcome was never influanced by the fact that our PCs live in Ahlissa :D
Originally posted by Greyson
But, I think Reydrich will edge out Ivid V in open conflict. Especially if Reyrich can keep the Scarlet Brotherhood from meddling in his affairs and subdue the threat of rebellion in Ahlissa.
Reydrich and Ivid? Err... I think he's talking circa 591 C.Y. dude...
Since you indicated you didn't mind discussion, I'll provide a few reasons for my vote. My vote goes solidly to Ahlissa, with very few doubts in my mind about their victory. I also think this is one of the few inevitable conflicts in the Flanaess and that it is even somewhat overdue.
Let's look at Grenell's forces. He has a very strong army, a very strong clergy and fanatical followers. There is little doubt that he holds a lot of power. The problem with the North Kingdom, however, is that this power is somewhat useless to him since he is hedged in on all sides by enemies. Take a step to his left and he'll find three possible enemies engaging his other fronts. This is the primary reason, I believe, that Ahlissa would win over North Kingdom.
Ahlissa, on the other hand, not only has a very good and large army, they also have a navy and LOTS of resources. Due to Xaveners household being so closely aligned with the clergy of Zilchus and the following philosophy that trade is better than war (although, war is also good for trade...), they are in a strong position to equip, feed and mobilize their armies which keeps morale high and gives the nation a force of well-trained, highly disciplined and well-equipped troops.
In a drawn out conflict, one must continually replenish supplies such as swords and armour, not just food and water. So though Grenell has, I believe, the stronger army, backed up with a stronger (Hextor being more militant than Zilchus, their clerics are also combatants) clergy, he really can't support a long term campaign against anyone, given that his resources are so limited. Trade with the North Kingdom is effectively at a standstill and so they're essentially a nation under seige.
Ahlissa also has many allies they can call upon. Allies you question? Yes, allies. Who is the bulwark against the North Kingdom? Ahlissa. What does the Iron League want least of all? Ahlissa to fall into Grenell's hands. Xavener might not be the greatest choice of allies, but he's certainly preferable to a megalomaniac who, if Ahlissa were under his control, possibly reforge the Great Kingdom as it was at the height of it's cruel influence. If Ahlissa fell to Grenell, the remaining factions in the area would quickly align with him simply out of fear. Nobody in the region wants this since all believe, at the very least, Xavener can be 'handled'.
On the other hand, if Ahlissa won over North Kingdom, the status quo of rebel lords in the former Great Kingdom lands remaining outside of Ahlissa and the North Kingdom, would remain, thus preventing any such empire creation. Ahlissa would never hold the North Kingdom fully under it's sway and I think it would soon become another Bandit Kingdoms scenario, where individual lords would fight individually, and mercenary forces and bandits would run amok, making the area a cesspit of violence that would be difficult to control.
So in essence, Ahlissa has a full-house and the North Kingdom has a pair of dueces.
Irongate: a powerful citystate with some surrounding territory
The kingdom of Sunndi: a small elven ruled nation with a mix of races, the kingdom is only 2 years old.
Onnwal: a very small nation that is partly occupied by the scarlet brotherhood, and is fighting a guerilla war against its occupiers.
Lordship of the isles: a island nation that is also under the control of the scarlet brotherhood, and has been at odds with some of the other Iron league
thats just a quick rundown, the gazatteer has alot of great info on these nations, I heartily suggest picking it up.
It has both allied with and warred with Ahlissa as a Great Kingdom territory, and would possible ally with it again if Ahlissa were fighting the North Kingdom.
Paul
That said, I agree with Delglath at least on one point, Ahlissa could never truly dominate the North Kingdom. It's in too much disarray right now for any ruler to be capable of handling it. On the other hand, I think it is still the potential wild card. The North Kingdom still has a large population and certainly a greater army. Who the people of the country side with is probably the most important part.
I feel that any battle on Ahlissa's turf will see an Ahlissan advantage. Grenell's forces are mainly humanoid and I doubt the native inhabitants of Ahlissa would appreciate that, no matter how much they may dislike Xavener. Grenell is probably the lesser of two evils for them. Considering that, one has to wonder whether the same would occur in battles in the North Kingdom's territory. I'm actually disinclined to think so. I think Grenell has them terror-bound, at least for the moment. In addition, I think the strong priesthood of Hextor would find more resources than Ahlissa could imagine. (I don't see any Fists of Zilchus running around.)
Grenell's main problem is getting his humanoid army to rally behind such a war. Since they are much more interested in settling the score with Ratik, such a thing is probably one of Grenell's greatest hurdles. Nevertheless, I believe that the army is of sufficient strength to prevent any successful, long-term invasion by Ahlissa.
So overall, I think the most likely outcome is actually a stalemate. Ahlissa lacks the manpower and resources to dominate all of the North Kingdom at present. The North Kingdom can't possibly hope it's armies to survive for long on Ahlissan ground. However, if there were to be a "winner" in this scenario, I think the most likely claimant would be Grenell. Using the resources of the church and assassins, were he clever enough to do so, he could engineer a plot to cripple the Ahlissan nobility and infrastructure so as to make their economic and organizational advantages moot. Hence, he could at least force concessions from the country despite the fact that he probably couldn't annex them into his empire. If Ahlissa is to have a chance however, it would be to persuade the people of the North Kingdom to rise up against their ruler. Such a blow would devastate Grenell, but I don't think it would happen.
Overall, I vote for the North Kingdom, by a narrow, and not very significant margin.
Additionally, Ahlissa is hedged in by the Scarlet Brotherhood to the south on the Tilvanot Penninsula (thus affecting maritime traffic) and the Kingdom of Sunndi to the South and East. Both could prove problematic if Ahlissa had to move massive forces north into Nyrond.
Grennell is more likely to butt heads with Nyrond, especially over the latter's expansion into the old Almorian lands, which would be a valuable addition to the North Kingdom's holdings. Also, the Hieronean/Hextoran conflict is much more pronounced between these two than with Darmen-ruled Ahlissa.
All of this said, Nyrond probably isn't close enough to recovery to survive a major war just yet. But Urnst, Greyhawk and the Theocracy would likely dive right in and end up taking on some "protectorates" should one occur.
HOWEVER...I doubt they'd be able to conquer it all.
Grennell would make a grab for the Almorian lands almost as soon as the blood hit the ground, and Xavener probably wouldn't be able to stop him.
Likewise, Urnst and the Theocracy would probably both decide that they need "buffer zones" and would snatch up as much adjacent Nyrondian lands as possible. With Ahlissa's might spent crushing Nyrond, they wouldn't be able to prevent it.
Now, mind you, this is all based entirely on money. Ahlissa is not, in and of itself, enough of a military power to wage war on a large scale. Their ability to do so would be based on their ability to buy mercenary forces, whereas Nyrond is too poor right now to even fund a large regular army.
Additionally, I think that the rest of the eastern Flanaess would do anything to keep another member of House Naelax from ressurecting the Great Kingdom.
Sunndi would overcome any squeamishness they may have about Ahlissa to oppose a Naelax advance. Though weakened, Nyrond would do so as well, and Urnst and Greyhawk would most definitely provide some support rather than see Grennell advance so far west. Ratik would probably seize the opportunity to retrench themselves at Grennell's expense while his attention is elsewhere. Drax and Solonor Compact city-states would probably throw in with Ahlissa rather than risk another Naelax empire.
It's not really a one-on-one fight discussion.
Originally posted by Psionycx
I don't think they have a chance because even though Grennell has a more militant country, and may be able to draw in hordes of humanoids, Ahlissa can buy higher-quality mercenaries.
Where will these mercenaries come from? Ahlissa is still reeling from the Greyhawk Wars. Most of the Front with Nyrond was on their borders, not Grenell's. I also consider that Ahlissa is spending it's money on infrastructure and building industry, to take so much of that money out when the economy is not exactly booming yet is pretty risky.
Originally posted by Psionycx
Additionally, I think that the rest of the eastern Flanaess would do anything to keep another member of House Naelax from ressurecting the Great Kingdom.
I'm not so sure it has as much to do with Naelax as it has to do with the Fiend-seeing throne. The Ivids had a pact with Baalzephon which didn't necessarily extend to all of Naelax. Remember if you will that it was Naelax's humanoid armies that were integral in bringing about the fall of Rauxes.
Originally posted by Psionycx
Sunndi would overcome any squeamishness they may have about Ahlissa to oppose a Naelax advance.
With one-tenth or less the population of either country, I doubt Sunndi would be oh-so-willing or even able to contribute much. I can imagine a very few human mercenaries who might fight for Ahlissa. Beyond that, I'm sure most of the elves would refuse and that doesn't leave much else.
Originally posted by Psionycx
Though weakened, Nyrond would do so as well,
I don't think Nyrond would intervene on the grounds that either victor would be incapable of occupying the other's territory for long. Even if they could, it would take all the resources of either nation just to do it.
Originally posted by Psionycx
and Urnst and Greyhawk would most definitely provide some support rather than see Grennell advance so far west.
The Duchy of Urnst is probably the only country altruistic enough to oppose Grenell. The Country of Urnst would rather watch their borders with the Old One. Greyhawk has a pretty sound (official) policy of neutrality in most affairs of the Flanaess. Any opposition from the Free City would come from independent sources like Jallarzi Sallavarian, and not from the Directing Oligarchy.
Originally posted by Psionycx
Ratik would probably seize the opportunity to retrench themselves at Grennell's expense while his attention is elsewhere.
Them and what army?
Originally posted by Psionycx
Drax and Solonor Compact city-states would probably throw in with Ahlissa rather than risk another Naelax empire.
It's not really a one-on-one fight discussion.
Drax the Invulnerable has no love for House Naelax to be sure. But does that mean he'd support a full-blown campaign against Grenell? I think it very doubtful. He doesn't trust Ahlissa, Sunndi, Nyrond, or any of the others. I think he'd probably make the most of a way by seizing any of North Kingdom's territory that gets forgotten in the south and possibly capturing some of their ships, but I don't think he would be willing to take on Grenell out of pure spite. I don't think that he would consider not siding with Ahlissa "risk[ing] another Naelax empire." More likely he'd laugh at the prospect and look forward to watching them decimate each other.