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Belcadiz Theoryby Átila Pires dos Santos and Giampaolo Agosta
The basic idea here is to make it as simple as possible, avoiding to move peoples from one place to another too much (most migrations here came from the canon, something that we can't avoid...).
Also, we're using two different elven clans as the origin of the Belcadizans, one from Evergrun and Grunland/Vulcania, called Feador (that may well be the origin of the Feadiel clan; both stayed behind fighting for their lands, Adakkia and the Sylvan Realm); the other is a Blackmoor clan, not related with the Evergrun colonists: these elves have darker skin and hair than most, and are followers of Ferros (that disappeared after the GRoF, leaving them without any Immortal patron). This idea came because the new Blackmoor manual mentions some elven clan that have no parallel in known Mystaran (Evergrun) elves. Also, DM agrees that there may be non-Evergrun elven clans living in Blackmoor (and he also includes another separate group, including "Belcadiz" and Hatwa elves, but I think this may be not necessary.
We also used much of Mystaros' ideas, including the "Espadi" as the origin of the word Ispan. But we decided to set the Ispan migration c. 150 AC, according to GAZ2 timeline. Also, it was much more of a legitimate (even if not planned) Thyatian expansion, instead of a forced migration.
We're also using the Silver Purge and the unification of Minrothad as a major event for the Ispan history, as it was for the Traladaran (see GP's Traladaran timeline )with the Silver Purge, most of the Alphatian population of the islands died or were under Minrothian rule in Harbortown, and Thyatis saw it as a opportunity to bring the pro-Thyatis Minrothians under the imperial government. That never happened, however, because of the unification of Minrothad. The aggressive reaction of Thyatis, answered also aggressively by Alphatia, leaded to the Colonial Wars in Ylaruam.
According to LoZompatore's (map of Glantri based on the Dragonlord Trilogy we have "New Elvish Holdings" and "Old Elvish Holdings" by 500 AC. We're assuming here that those are the first Belcadizan settlements and small Sheyallia villages (that will be absorbed by the Erewan), respectively.
Before 3000 BC: The Alvar elves, who live somewhere close to Blackmoor, move closer to the Evergrun colonist elves, and make contact with them. *1
3000 BC: Great Rain of Fire. The Alvar, other Blackmoorian elves and the Evergrun colonists in Glantri are forced to flee underground or wiped out. The Evergrun elves move into Vulcania.
2800 BC: Ilsundal leads a migration from west Vulcania to Adakkia, followed by many elven clans.
2500 BC: The "second Returnists" leave east Vulcania, following on Ilsundal's tracks (Feador and Sheyallia clans).
2300 BC: Coming from southwest, some hostile population expels Ilsundal and his elves from west Adakkia, forcing them northwest into the Arm of the Immortals. *2
2200 BC: Elves in west Adakkia moves north, fleeing from Davania and entering the Serpent Peninsula. The two groups meet north, but the Sheyallia clan stays in the Serpent Peninsula. Meditor/Elsan, Verdier, and Vyalia clans move on to the southern Known World.
The Feador clan joins the "First Returnists" journey to Glantri, where they believe they'll find the Evergrun colonists. They, however, are unable to find them. Some Feador Elves stay in Glantri, while the rest continue towards the Sylvan Realm.
2100 BC: Ilsundal's elves reaches the north-western coast of Brun and found the Sylvan Realm.
1950 BC: The Alvar clan and other Elves that have weathered the Great Rain of Fire in the caverns under Glantri resettle the surface, founding the city of Alvar. *3
1700 BC: The Glantrian cataclysm forces the elves back underground, or out of the highlands. The Feador and Alvar elves decide to cooperate in order to survive the long, slow underground trek, which brings them south, all the way back to Davania. Most of the older Elves do not survive the journey, and a great part of the old elven culture is lost during the next seven centuries.
1500-1000 BC: Through the next five centuries, the Feador (now Feadoras) and Alvar clans become a single elven nation, adopting as their name the ethnonym used by the Taymorans for all Glantrian Elves, "Baal Gadir" (the City Lords). This name evolves to the modern Belcadiz.
1000 BC: Fleeing the Beastman invasion, the Milenians migrate to Davania. At the same time, Nithians bring Antalian slaves (Thyatians, Kerendans, Hattians and Hinterlanders) on the southern continent.
900 BC: The Belcadiz elves finally find their way back to surface, and find themselves surrounded by the Thyatian and Kerendan tribes. These human tribes are by now strongly influenced by the Milenian culture, so the Belcadiz absorb that culture as well.
800 BC: The ice finally recedes completely from Glantri and humans (Antalians coming from the Midlands) began to settle there in greater numbers. *4
600 BC: Hard-pressed by the Milenian empire, the Thyatians, Kerendans and Hattians leave Davania, crossing the Sea of Dread and landing back in south-eastern Brun.
The Belcadiz elves, now partially Thyatianized, take part in this migration. The Thyatians and their allies conquer the Toralai-descended Doulakki city-states (e.g., Machetos), and absorb most Doulakki south of the Altan Tepes.
The Belcadiz thus settle near their long-lost relatives (the Vyalia, Meditor and Verdier clans), but there is little contact with these reclusive forest-dwellers.
500 BC: The Sheyallia elves are forced out of the Serpent Peninsula by their former Tanagoro allies. Some flee to Graakhalia, others to Glantri.
0 AC: The first Thyatian emperor, Zendrolion Tatriokanitas, is crowned.
150 AC: Thyatian colonists start pushing into the Dythesthenian and Nicostenian borderlands, subjugating, expelling or absorbing the native Alasiyan tribes. Among the Thyatian colonists, there are also many Belcadiz elves. *5
445 AC: The Silver Purge. The city-state of New Alphatia is destroyed.
488 AC: As Minrothad becomes an unified nation, the Empire of Thyatis strengthens its grip over the borderlands, causing an Alphatian reaction.
500 AC: Colonial wars in Ylaruam. Local Thyatian colonists (a large part of whom are now no longer identified as Kerendans but as Ispans, "those who wield espadas" and calls this region as "Ispañola") fight for the Empire, taking the brunt of the war. Women and children fleeing from the conflict are shipped to the sparsely populated island of Terentias. Other colonists from Kerendas also move there, founding a strong dominion that quickly raises to the rank of Grand Duchy *6, as a base of operation for the future conquest of the dread islands. The conquest, however, never materialise, as Thyatis is dragged in a prolonged war with Alphatia.
First Belcadizan attempt to re-settle Glantri; Nueva Alvar is founded.
700 AC: Tired of the colonial wars, and hearing promising reports from the first colonists, Belcadiz elves leave Ylaruam en masse (3/4 of the Glantrian Belcadizan population arrives in these years). Some Ispans also follow them. News about the Silver Sierras mineral riches attract also many Kerendans (who will settle Caurenze), while some Hattians decide to leave Thyatis because of the local intolerance (leading to the foundation of Aalban).
800 AC: By now, Terentias has developed its own culture, with many Kerendan and Ispan elements.
830 AC: The Thyatian occupation of Dythestenia and Nicostenia ends as Al Kalim conquers Ctesiphon and Tameronikas. Few Ispans accept the Eternal Truth. All others settle in Thyatian-held Tel Akbir (in Dawnpoint, or "Punta de la Aurora").
860 AC: An Ispan explorer, Sancho Estaban, followed up on Minrothian reports about the Thanegioth Archipelago, and extensively explored the easternmost isle, which he named Nueva Ispañola in honour of his lost homeland. Eventually, a small settlement of a few hundred souls grew upon the northern shore of Nueva Ispañola, and became a revictualling station for explorers of the region.
900 AC: An energetic emperor, Gabrionus IV, establishes a new expansionist policy in Thyatis, and news about the Savage Coast Oltec lost cities, filled with gold and silver, attract his attention. Terentias and Tel Akbir are overpopulated, and most colonists to Nueva Ispañola and the Gulf of Hule come from these areas, including most Ispans, impoverished by the loss of their Dythesthenian and Nicostenian holdings.
*1 - Alvar: Blackmoorian Elven clan; these elves have darker skin and hair than most, and worships Ferros.
Evergrun colony in Glantri: these are the ancestors of the Shadow Elves, Schattenalfen, Gentle Folk and Icevale elves.
*2 - Likely, the last remains of the Carnifex of Y'hog (i.e., the troglodytes); "BC 3000: The Great Rain of Fire occurs. Many Carnifex citadels underneath the Adakkian Mountains are destroyed by the earthquakes, reducing that group to the merest fragment of its former self. Y'hog also sustains some damage." Of the Lore and Legends of Y'hog, City of the Unclean Ones, and of that Race .
*3 - Officially Ilsundal and Blackmoor elves never met, but that's unlikely. They, however, probably didn't like each other (they had been separated for too long) and decided to ignore each other.
*4 - GAZ13, page 7.
*5 - GAZ2 timeline.
*6 - This Ispan/Kerendan mix is the origin of the "proto-Verdan" culture. After 900 AC, it splits into the SC Verdan culture, influenced by the Oltecs and Yavis, while those who stayed in Terentias evolve to something different (possibly a M-Sardinian culture). That's basically much like the Espa / Ispan situation.
Another unsolved problem about the Ispans is that Merry Pirate city that bears the same name of a SC capitol, Puerto Morillos. Nothing is said about it at the HW Boxed Set, and there's no clue about Ispans (or Ispans and Verdans) being brought to the HW, especially after 900 AC, when the SC city was founded. So, this could mean that both cities have this name because of another place, likely at the KW, with this name (perhaps between Ylaruam and Thyatis, exactly where the battle of Tel Abddallah took place, and destroyed exactly by it; possibly it originally was a Doulakki town named "Morilios").
So, if there's nothing said about Ispans at the HW, at least there's something about Thyatians, and twice: BC 250 and AC 700 (actually described as Ierendians). BC 250 is too early for that (Thyatians weren't even an empire yet, nor had the Kerendans crossed the border with Ylaruam and become Ispans). Also those Thyatians were placed at the western islands (that means "to the right" for the HW), probably at Arana; they later conquered Floresque.
AC 700 could work, if we had many Ispans among those rebelled Thyatians at Ierendi, or if we imagine that for Ierendians, it actually means every pirate close to it, like Minrothad, Thyatis and Ylaruam. Assuming the later is true, this could also help making room for Alasiyan pirates, mimicking RW Barbary pirates (there're a lot of war galleys at there, anyway), and it's quite likely that there was some pirate activity at Ylaruam's Puerto Morillos by AC 700, plundering Alphatian ships. Also, this could more or less explain Kota-Jayang at there, if it was an Ochalean village (IIRC, GP said once that this name is Malaysian, but unless sherkastas were taken to the Merry Pirates Sea, we will have to find another answer here).
Another interesting, but AFAIK usually overlooked is what happened in BC 800, according to GAZ13, mentioning humans settling there "in greater numbers". Could this mean that Antalians got there much before the Flaems, and, why not, perhaps even developing a M-Dutch language? If so, this could mean that the Flaem culture was originally somewhat different than we know it now (and perhaps the same could be true for other Alphatian peoples that resemble RW cultures, like Ochalea and Ambur). And if they already were much like modern Flaems, this at least helps to understand they spreading so fast, controlling almost all modern Glantri regions by AC 500 (they arrived at there in AC 395!).